US Presidential Election 2016

Count Bobulescu

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Given the self imposed limitations of the two other existing threads, I wanted to have a place for broader discussion of both politics and policy as they impact the campaigns.

First up, I'm a registered Democrat who has contributed to Bernie Sanders, but believe Hillary will get the nomination, and I'll hold my nose and vote for her.

There is no perfect candidate this year, and politics is always about compromise. I also got a good deal back in June with Paddy Power 25&40/1 on John Kasich for nom/Prez. He's been a bit of a disappointment so far.

That said, I'd like to use this thread to document the events, and explore some evolving possibilities, such as specific general election match ups, Clinton v. Rubio/Cruz/Kasich etc.

Although I like Sanders economic message, he's not the full package, weak on foreign policy, comes across as just "angry" too often. He's also easy prey for Republicans.

Hillary is a master of policy, not so much on politics. She remains the most likely to be the next Prez. Biden's decision not to run should help her on the money front. Prior to Biden's decision only about 15% of Obama's major donor's had rowed in behind Hillary. That should now change for the better.

It will be much more interesting to see how the R contest plays out. Some quick observations on the current status, which will likely change.

Trump has been successful because blue collar white Republicans have coalesced around him, while white collar R's have coalesced around no-one.

Carson's rise is likely short term, a flirt. His base is evangelical, and he shows little interest or appetite for expanding it. He's not great on politics, and on policy he's a total mess. Some longer interviews he's given to Bloomberg and PBS have exposed his policy weaknesses.

Like Trump & Carson, Fiorina will ultimately fail because of lack of electoral experience. Republicans will not nominate for the highest office anyone who has not held any office, unless there is a compelling reason to do so, like that person polling thru the roof against Hillary, and that is clearly not the case.

Cruz who is definitely not part of the R establishment, is currently the best placed to capitalize on the fall of Trump & Carson to secure the nomination. Electable is a different question. He's built an organization, and has raised serious money, but he's not nearly as electable as Rubio. The coming Cruz/Rubio fight promises to be interesting

Rubio has both attractions and weaknesses ......    He's young energetic with a million $ smile. He's also good on both politics and policy. His weaknesses are money and discipline, and there is a concern that not all skeletons have yet fallen out of the closet. He is currently Clinton's most feared opponent.
A Clinton/Rubio general would be a reminder to all of the 2008 generational clash between Obama/McCain, and not in a good way for Clinton.

Jeb! is good on policy, not so much politics, and that exclamation point after his name speaks to a problem he can do little about. Hillary has the same problem, but she has far fewer competitors for the nom.

Here's a look at at the most recent campaign financial disclosures, for June - September, now about two weeks old, that I posted elsewhere. Runs to about $130M for all campaigns, but excludes all SuperPac money, of which Jeb! alone has in excess of $100M, The Koch brothers are promising to spend $750M +/-. Carl Ichan will be chipping in $150M, etc.etc.


Clinton & Sanders raise almost as much as the top 4 Republicans combined.

Several, including Clinton Carson Bush & Rubio have burn rates that might be problematic.


Hillary Clinton and Ben Carson led the way in third-quarter fundraising, according to campaign finance reports filed with the FEC Thursday. On the Republican side, Carson raised $20.8 million and spent $14.2 million from July through September, leaving him with $11.3 million on hand. Jeb Bush brought in $13.4 million, spent $11.5 million and had $10.3 million on hand, while Ted Cruz raised $12.2 million, spent $7 million and had $13.8 million on hand. At $11 million, Marco Rubio was the only other Republican candidate to enter October with more than $10 million on hand. Donald Trump ranked 8th in the GOP field, collecting $3.9 million, $100,000 of which he personally contributed, and spending $4.2 million, finishing the quarter with $255,000 in the bank.

As for the Democrats, Clinton raised $29.9 million and spent $25.8 million in the third quarter, leaving her with a massive $33 million war chest. Powered by small donors,
Bernie Sanders raised $26.2 million, spent $11.2 million and had $27.1 million on hand. And Martin Some other person raised just $1.3 million, spent $1.8 million and was left with $806,000 on hand.

BIG PICTURE: "Establishment-backed presidential candidates in both parties … are rapidly losing one of their few remaining advantages in politics: money. … pstart candidates shunned by their parties’ major donors are now financially competitive with … opponents who have spent months or even years wooing the big-name donors and fundraisers." (
New York Times)

"Democratic presidential contenders dramatically outpaced their Republican counterparts, ... spotlighting how the parties are taking divergent paths in their pursuit of 2016 funding. The emphasis by" Clinton and Sanders "on raising money directly for their campaigns has helped them amass large donor pools. … While GOP candidates put an intense focus early in the year on raising huge sums for independent groups, many have had less success in attracting smaller donations." (
Washington Post)


Individual numbers.

Hillary Clinton
Raised: $29,921,653.91
Spent: $25,776,617.14
Cash on hand: $25,776,617.14
Debt: $647,245

Bernie Sanders
Raise: $26,216,430.38
Spent: $11,258,446.55
Cash on hand: $27,119,721.50

Martin O’Some other person
Raised: $1,282,820.92
Spent: $1,790,970.11
Cash on hand: $805,986.83
Debt: $20,607.50

Larry Lessig
Raised: $1,016,189.22
Spent: $442,253.62
Cash on hand: $573,935.60

Jim Webb
Raised: $696,972.18
Spent: $380,206.84
Cash on hand: $316,76

Lincoln Chafee
Raised: $15,457.86
Spent: $59,917.28
Cash on hand: $284,526



Ben Carson
Raised: $20,767,266.51
Spent: $14,240,044.51
Cash on hand: $11,272,534.13
Candidate loan: $25,000

Jeb Bush
Raised: $13,384,832.06
Spent: $ 11,465,513.30
Cash on hand: $ 10,271,129.09
Debt: $404,737

Ted Cruz
Raised: $12,218,137.71
Spent: $6,966,829.60
Cash on hand: $13,778,904.

Carly Fiorina
Raised: $6,791,308.76
Spent: $2,232,773.15
Cash on hand: $5,549,19

Marco Rubio
Raised: $5,724,784.46
Spent: $4,607,861.17
Cash on hand: $10,975,988

John Kasich
Raised: $4,376,787.95
Spent: $1,734,838.32
Cash on hand: $2,641,949

Chris Christie
Raised: $4,208,984.49
Spent: $2,822,537.10
Cash on hand: $1,386,447.39
Debt: $246,346

Donald Trump
Raised: $3,926,511.65
Spent: $4,159,474.93
Cash on hand: $254,772

Rand Paul
Raised: $2,509,251.63
Spent: $4,546,611.25
Cash on hand: $2,124,155.52
Debt: $365,359.

Mike Huckabee
Raised: $1,241,737.51
Spent: $1,365,797.56
Cash on hand: $761,410.96
Debt: $133,104

Lindsey Graham
Raised: $1,052,657.62
Spent: $1,984,167.60
Cash on hand: $1,651,309

Bobby Jindal
Raised: $579,438.39
Spent: $832,214.02
Cash on hand: $260,939.

George Pataki
Raised: $153,513.89
Spent: $347,563.59
Cash on hand: $13,570.55
Candidate loan: $20,000

Jim Gilmore
Raised: $105,807
Spent: $71,422.80
Cash on hand: $34,384.40
Candidate loan: $43,000
 
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So you support perhaps the most honest candidate but will vote for perhaps the most dishonest candidate
 

Count Bobulescu

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Youngdan said:
So you support perhaps the most honest candidate but will vote for perhaps the most dishonest candidate
I noted two things on that issue, 1: there is no perfect candidate this year, plus politics always involves compromise, and 2: I would be holding my nose.......

That should make it clear, I'm not HRC's biggest fan.
 
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On the issue of honesty, theirs would be the largest gulf maybe in history. Sanders put over 20000 young people into the convention center here in Boston a few weeks ago, that is striking for a 76 year old codger. Hillary will have her paid rent a fans all over the place. I do not know how people in Iowa feel but if Massachusetts was a caucus where fraud is difficult, I would predict Bernie would cruise home.
 

Count Bobulescu

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Youngdan said:
On the issue of honesty, theirs would be the largest gulf maybe in history. Sanders put over 20000 young people into the convention center here in Boston a few weeks ago, that is striking for a 76 year old codger. Hillary will have her paid rent a fans all over the place. I do not know how people in Iowa feel but if Massachusetts was a caucus where fraud is difficult, I would predict Bernie would cruise home.
At this stage it would be more remarkable if he failed to put 20,000 into a convention center. He's been doing that since at least July.

Hillary is still way ahead in Iowa on 60-65%. Bernie is on 25%. It should be noted that the dynamics driving the R & D Caucuses in Iowa are very different. R is dominated by evangelicals to a greater degree than most. D is more pragmatic. And Iowa has not been friendly to either Bill or Hillary. But, Obama has signaled that he has learned nothing about either Benghazi or the FBI criminal probe into her emails, that gives him pause. He doesn't like what she did, but seems to believe the FBI won't drop a bomb. That also probably contributed to Biden's decision. Typically, there are three tickets out of Iowa for each party. This year the R's have to fight harder.
 
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It is such a scam really. With all the decent democrat people in the USA, they dug up an older fossil than herself to outwrinkle her. It is no wonder even the less bright can see the fix is in on oneside and close to being fixed on the other
 
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https://www.facebook.com/rockydlf2016/

Now the democrats can have their own Donald Thrump.
 

Count Bobulescu

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Here's a roundup of Prez related stuff from Sunday's talk shows which were dominated by the Paul Ryan/Speaker issue.

— Jeb pushed back on the idea that his campaign is in turmoil and he is perpetually frustrated during an appearance on “Meet the Press.” He distanced himself from the PowerPoint presentation, first published in The Daily 202, that outlined attacks on Marco Rubio. “That’s not a hopeful tactic,” Chuck Todd told Bush. “I didn’t see it,” Bush answered. “It’s your campaign…. You don’t know this memo? You don’t know this PowerPoint?” Todd asked. “I read about it when it was leaked, for sure,” Bush replied. “I didn’t know about the PowerPoint…. I want them to focus on winning New Hampshire, winning South Carolina, winning Iowa, winning Nevada.”

  • “Look, I know that I got to get better at doing the debate. I’m a grinder. I mean, when I see that I’m not doing something well then I reset and I get better.”
  • “I don’t believe in litmus tests, but I’m going to make sure that my appointments to the Supreme Court would have a consistent proven record of judicial restraint.”
— Meg Whitman, the current CEO of HP, explained why she’s not backing former HP CEO Carly Fiorina on CNN: “Because while I think business strengths are important, I also think having worked in government is an important part of the criteria, I think it’s very difficult for your first role in politics to be president of the United States. And so I think having experience in either the senate or as the governor of a state I think is really important. It’s just hard to be dropped down into Washington DC never having been in politics before. So I wanted to have someone who had some experience in politics.” Whitman, who was the GOP nominee for governor of California in 2010 when Fiorina was the Senate candidate, backs Chris Christie.

Fiorina, meanwhile, admitted on ABC that she was wrong when she said during last week’s GOP debate that 92 percent of the jobs lost during President Obama’s first term belonged to women.

GOP candidates call for debate reforms on Sunday shows   Several Republican presidential candidates are using the Sunday morning talk shows to call for changes to the GOP debate format.  
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/258780-gop-candidates-call-for-debate-reforms-on-sunday-shows
 
CARLY FIORINA
Fiorina slams ‘The View’   Fiorina dares hosts of "The View" to insult her to her face.  
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-primaries/258775-fiorina-slams-the-view-for-remarks-about-her-face

JEB BUSH
Bush: I didn't know about document calling Rubio 'GOP Obama'   "Well I read about it when it was leaked, for sure,” he said. "It wasn’t presented to me.”  
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-primaries/258769-bush-i-didnt-know-about-document-calling-rubio-gop-obama


SNEAK PEEK: JEB BUSH to CHUCK TODD, on a terrace at the Perez Art Museum in Miami yesterday for NBC's "Meet the Press": "Look, I know that I got to get better at doing the debate. I'm a grinder. I mean, when I see that I'm not doing something well, then I reset and I get better."

CHUCK ASKED about 112 leaked slides that the Bush campaign showed top donors in Houston last week: "[T]here was a big chunk about why Marco Rubio wouldn't be a good nominee. And you went through sort of all of the opposition research on that. That's not a hopeful campaign tactic."

BUSH: "I didn't see it. I'm focused on a hopeful - "

CHUCK: "It's your campaign."

BUSH: "I didn't see it. I didn't see it. I don't know - "

CHUCK: "You don't know this memo? You don't know this PowerPoint - "

BUSH: "No. Well, I read about it when it was leaked, for sure. I didn't know about the PowerPoint. It wasn't presented ... to me."

CHUCK: "Is this something ... you want your campaign involved with?"

BUSH: "I want them to focus on winning New Hampshire, winning South Carolina, winning Iowa, winning Nevada. ... I want to unify the party and I'm focused on that. I'm focused on winning the primary, and it's got to be about me first and foremost. Look, you've been around a long time. You know that comparing and contrasting is part of this. But the basis of my campaign is that we can fix these problems and people can be lifted out of poverty and the great middle can get rising income again." Video http://nbcnews.to/1kk1qDA See the slides, via U.S. News. http://bit.ly/1M4LM9W

JOHN DICKERSON interviewed MARCO RUBIO for CBS' "Face the Nation" yesterday at the Des Lux Hotel in Des Moines. Rubio flew in from Mason City and sat down with John before a cattle call.

DICKERSON: "Was Jeb Bush your mentor?"

RUBIO: "He was a big part of me. I don't know about labels like that, but he was most certainly a big part of my career. And I have tremendous admiration. I said that at the debate. You're never going to hear me badmouth him. He was a great governor of Florida. He's someone I have tremendous personal affection for. My issue is not with Jeb Bush. I'm running for president because I honestly believe that our party and our country needs to turn the page and allow people, the new generation of leadership, that understands the issues before America now.

"I know there are people running that have more experience than I do on the issues we faced 17 years ago. But on the issues before America today, that's what we should be debating. And I just don't believe there's anyone else running who has a better understanding of the issues before us now than I do."

DICKERSON: "Are people wrong who say that the reason that was such a moment for you in the debate is because you have this relationship, this friendship, with him and you could basically call him on his motives. ... People who support you say you put Jeb Bush in his place."

RUBIO: "Well, I don't know. He said something, I had to respond. And I feel, obviously, what I said is something that I believe. I do believe that Jeb has been convinced by people around him that he needs to attack me in order to be more successful. I don't personally agree with it, but I'm not running his campaign. What I control is my campaign. My campaign's not going to be about attacking him or any other Republicans. If there are policy differences, we should debate those. That's a legitimate issue.

"But I'm not going to badmouth other Republicans. I want to be the nominee, but someone on that stage is going to be the Republican nominee. I don't want to do anything that makes it easier for Hillary Clinton or whoever the Democrat nominee is to defeat the Republicans. Because we truly, as a nation, cannot afford another four years like the last eight."
 

gracethepirate

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Youngdan said:
On the issue of honesty, theirs would be the largest gulf maybe in history. Sanders put over 20000 young people into the convention center here in Boston a few weeks ago, that is striking for a 76 year old codger. Hillary will have her paid rent a fans all over the place. I do not know how people in Iowa feel but if Massachusetts was a caucus where fraud is difficult, I would predict Bernie would cruise home.
Where is your evidence:
1. that Hillary is dishonest
2. that Hillary has rent-a-fans
 
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I presume you are having a laugh
 
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[video=youtube]http://https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKosd0xJadE[/video]



It is shocking that these people are actually allowed to vote. It is difficult to predict elections any more because one tends to underestimate the number of absolute dolts that exist.
I suppose the only thing worse than stupid voters is stupid candidates.

[video=youtube]http://https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8pgPw2jo1A[/video]


I consider Hillary and The Donald very intelligent, that goes without saying but I certainly would like IQ tests for the likes of Jeb and Rubio, Chafee is gone but he was no Einstein either
 

Count Bobulescu

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  • The Republican presidential campaigns are in open revolt over last week's CNBC debate.
  • The Republican National Committee, trying to do damage control, has suspended future NBC-affiliated debates. But the campaigns are also angry with the RNC itself, and want more control over debate formats going forward. [CNN / Dylan Byers and Brian Stetler]
  • Some of the ideas being thrown out are good ones; some candidates, for example, want debate moderators to ask questions from a conservative standpoint. (If this sounds idiotic to you, this Timothy P. Carney piece lays out how it could be valuable.) [Washington Examiner / Timothy P. Carney]
  • Some of the ideas are bad: Ben Carson's campaign floated the idea of 5-minute opening and closing statements for each candidate, which would leave very little debate time for debating. [Huffington Post / Sam Stein]
  • Ultimately, the demands the campaigns settled on are pretty minor: at least 30 seconds per candidate for opening and closing, and no "lightening rounds" (sic). [Vox / Andrew Prokop]
 
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