Tipp next time out (again)

Marcos the black

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Hi all, 
Just to keep this one going.
As it stands my take on this is:
2 Independents: Lowry and Healy
1 FG: Hayes
1 FF: Smith
1 Lab: Kelly
 

capitalismrots

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Marcos the black said:
Hi all, 
Just to keep this one going.
As it stands my take on this is:
2 Independents: Lowry and Healy
1 FG: Hayes
1 FF: Smith
1 Lab: Kelly
 is Kelly safe? He certainly is if keeping a high profile in the media is concerned :rolleyes:
 
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Marcos the black

Marcos the black

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capitalismrots said:
 is Kelly safe? He certainly is if keeping a high profile in the media is concerned :rolleyes:
I wouldn't say safe but he should do it.
 
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Hayes FG
Smith or Ambrose FF
Lowery Ind
Mc Grath Ind 
Healy Ind / SF / Kelly Lab  in dog fight for last seat
 

im axeled

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i was in tipp town last saturday, i bumped into two welsh guys on tour, they claimed that in the main area ther was only four shops open in which their o/h's could browse in, other wise every thing was either locked up a pub or a fast food joint, i recon any goverment politician who starts telling the people of tipp about the recovery will get a shart and rather colourfull answer
 
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Marcos the black

Marcos the black

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im axeled said:
i was in tipp town last saturday, i bumped into two welsh guys on tour, they claimed that in the main area ther was only four shops open in which their o/h's could browse in, other wise every thing was either locked up a pub or a fast food joint, i recon any goverment politician who starts telling the people of tipp about the recovery will get a shart and rather colourfull answer
Don't you b1tch about Enda's "I met a man" stories?
 

Plebian

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Hard to figure how the two Tipps will go into one.

I think Kelly is probably a goner, couldn't entirely rule out his keeping his seat based on some kind of a personal vote, don't think he's got any charm so he better have been delivering to an awful lot of people.

Lowry is nailed on.

FG are nailed on for one anyway.

FF have too many spare votes to fk up in this 5 seater where the last seat probably won't even need to reach a full quota to get over the line.

SF went from 1 seat in the Locals in 2009 to 5 ( 1 in each LEA ) in 2014 where Labour dropped from 6 seats to 1. SF took 10% in the Locals from a low base and are facing a more suitable environment in a GE constituency than they would have faced here in the Locals.

Mattie and Seamus Healy are in a dog fight in the south of the constituency, both are excellent campaigners, it's hard to rule out Mattie. I think Healy has a better chance of finishing ahead of Mattie on first preferences and may stay ahead of Mattie on transfers. If SF managed to fail then Healy would be sorted on SF transfers.

With Healy and SF and Mattie likely to be strong contenders it's almost impossible to see Kelly Labour managing to beat 2 out of that 3 or of him getting much help from any of their transfers so I reckon he's got just too much of a mountain to climb.
 

im axeled

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Marcos the black said:
Don't you b1tch about Enda's "I met a man" stories?
is one not entitled to discourage lying
 
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