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The chance of another recession in Ireland are 100%

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ShumanTheHuman

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Hard brexit could happen, although I think soft brexit is more likely.

This country's real difficulty is that our nominal level of debt has not reduced. Debt continues to be a huge drag on our public finances.

We've paid out 60 billion in interest repayments alone during the past 10 years.
Dead money which could have been put to far better use, were it not for our nominal levels of huge debt.

The low interest rate environment of the past 10 years is unprecedented. If interest rates do increase, even by a small amount, the debt pyre will ignite and then the real pain will ensue.
TBH I don't think it matters one way or the other. We are going to have a global systemic banking failure.
This is a bit technical and I need to watch it again to be sure I caught everything but basically we are fucked

My takeaway - if Deutsche Bank defaults the whole system crashes, if any other major bank fails anywhere Deutsche Bank fails and the whole system crashes.

The only other option is the Globohomo Transsexual Capital Cabal have a quick switch to a cashless, social credit dystopia in mind where if you're not smashing the Rogans every time Merrion Street tweets something the black helicopters will be buzzing outside your window in no time and sure we're more than half way there as it is
 

IrishJohn

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Its simple boom and bust economics.

The question is not if we will have a recession but when.
 

Masonteer

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If Trump continues the war against Iran, waged on behalf of his Israeli and Saudi masters then a global recession is going to happen pretty soon, because Iran's leaders will feel they've little to lose, and they'll hit back, causing oil prices to skyrocket.

This will be the catalyst for a global recession, and Europe's leaders will be just as guilty as Trump, given they've also broken the terms of the JCPOA, helping Trump enable his war against Iran.
 

valamhic

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TBH I don't think it matters one way or the other. We are going to have a global systemic banking failure.
This is a bit technical and I need to watch it again to be sure I caught everything but basically we are fucked

My takeaway - if Deutsche Bank defaults the whole system crashes, if any other major bank fails anywhere Deutsche Bank fails and the whole system crashes.

The only other option is the Globohomo Transsexual Capital Cabal have a quick switch to a cashless, social credit dystopia in mind where if you're not smashing the Rogans every time Merrion Street tweets something the black helicopters will be buzzing outside your window in no time and sure we're more than half way there as it is
This shows the overall financial position. We can see here in Ireland the branches of the tree. The banks are built on lending to credit worthy
customers. How credit worthy are they? Following the 2008 collapse, we were promised strong regulation and we got it for a while. I now know we have week regulation. The regulator does not want to do what he is paid to do. Government has introduced fair value adjustments which are easily abused and in the case of renewable energy are been abused. It is allowing payment of dividend out of new share capital and this is being used by Greencoat Renewables.

Then government says it can drive us back to the stone fuel consumption with wind farms and solar farms. No it can't. We will be driven back to the stone age by poverty after government spends all our money on green junk
 

valamhic

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If Trump continues the war against Iran, waged on behalf of his Israeli and Saudi masters then a global recession is going to happen pretty soon, because Iran's leaders will feel they've little to lose, and they'll hit back, causing oil prices to skyrocket.

This will be the catalyst for a global recession, and Europe's leaders will be just as guilty as Trump, given they've also broken the terms of the JCPOA, helping Trump enable his war against Iran.
The use of abbreviations in posts is unfortunate. Your post is out of date. Iran's oil is just one more supply in an already glut market. Iran will not be able to shut down the middle east oil supply by bombing oil tankers. They will be crushed in 2 days, not one of their air force planed will get back to base and not one of its Naval ships will get back either. The issue with Iran is nuclear weapons only. It's an irrelevance.
 

Masonteer

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The use of abbreviations in posts is unfortunate. Your post is out of date. Iran's oil is just one more supply in an already glut market. Iran will not be able to shut down the middle east oil supply by bombing oil tankers. They will be crushed in 2 days, not one of their air force planed will get back to base and not one of its Naval ships will get back either. The issue with Iran is nuclear weapons only. It's an irrelevance.
Iran has thousands of very accurate ballistic missiles which can target the oil fields of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

I'll let you try to figure out what them doing so would cause.
 

valamhic

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Its simple boom and bust economics.

The question is not if we will have a recession but when.
Correct. What alarmed me was the result of the last EU election. Fine Gael and the greens pulled votes everywhere. Voters depending on cars, workers depending on trucks and farmers depending on tractors and cattle all voted for them. The electorate were Gung Hoe giving a clap on the back to established parties, Sad but true
 

valamhic

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Iran has thousands of very accurate ballistic missiles which can target the oil fields of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

I'll let you try to figure out what them doing so would cause.
That is true about the weapons only.. Conventional explosives are not capable of knocking out oil production. Its mostly a bang and smoke capable of being fixed by a few welders. They are capable of knocking out ships carrying oil and military aircraft protecting them. At the first threat of Iran attacking, it will be allowed one strike for legal reasons and then it's military capability will be neutralized in a few hours. Bashing Iran would be seen by America, Britain and Israel and a training exercise. It would all be over in 3 hours.
 
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valamhic

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This is what Ireland needs to survive the next 10 years financially.

1) A vibrant agri food raw materials and processing industry. I don't believe any fertilizer is make here now. South American beef, poultry and other food is to be allowed in to encourage cutting down the rain forest. So agri food is not going to be there.

2) A vibrant international investment level in Pharma and high tech. That will just about survive in the Trump era but is threatened by high electricity prices. 3rd in the world.

3) Efficient road transport to get workers to work. That is now to change to electric cars which stop mid way and require a generator in booth to keep going.

4) A place to live for workers, this is denied because our people can't afford a house.

All of this is denied by a gullible electorate. It can only be put right in the long term by a severe recession to change voting paterns.
 
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TheWexfordInn

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All reccession so far in history have been temporary.
I wouldn't always presume that any economic downturn would be a temporary downward blip.

Eg in the late 19th Century Argentina had the highest per capita GDP in the planet ahead of the US (EEUU in Spanish). Since then its relative economic position has shifted structurally in the wrong direction. (The UK was in fifth position BTW.)

If Tax Harmonisation means Ireland loses all the multinationals then Ireland will be economically back to the 1980s except worse off due to the mountain of debt.



Argentina was the richest country in the world
 

Masonteer

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That is true about the weapons only.. Conventional explosives are not capable of knocking out oil production. Its mostly a bang and smoke capable of being fixed by a few welders. They are capable of knocking out ships carrying oil and military aircraft protecting them. At the first threat of Iran attacking, it will be allowed one strike for legal reasons and then it's military capability will be neutralized in a few hours. Bashing Iran would be seen by America, Britain and Israel and a training exercise. It would all be over in 3 hours.
Three hours? You sound like Dick Cheney prior to the Iraq invasion.

Iran has the capacity to cause huge damage to oil infrastructure in its region, should it retaliate against the war the U.S., Israelis and Saudis are waging against it. And it has the capacity to sustain this damage over a long time, despite any arial bombardment.
 

Bad dog

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Then there is that National Debt...Hmmmh..

RTE radio reported this morning that it was 200Bn.. 60Bn in interest payments alone since the complete collapse of Ireland followed by our loss of Sovereign Nation Status. This lunchtime RTE online reported that it was 205Bn.. I wonder what the actual figure is? Bigger than both of those figures.. Just guessing..

A recession, which is heading our way, will affect Ireland's ability to keep borrowing to fund our prized hard won position of immigrant chancers Destination of First Choice ® That'd be a tragedy.. Not just for Ireland, but Nigeria, Poland, Brazil... Oh! the humanity...
Ireland Debt Clock: How Much National Debt Does Ireland Have?
 
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