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Tadhg's Market Tips

Tadhg Gaelach

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Please feel free to post your own tips too. Dan had a great thread along these lines, maybe he might resurrect it. Let's start with gold. I think it's going down. Swap dealers and Commericals already super-short gold, and those are the really big players - much bigger than the hedge funds. 1550 is the key level. But give it to 1547. If gold goes under 1547 we should see a pullback to around 1500. The bulls will make one last stand, and then I think it's going much lower.
 
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Tadhg Gaelach

Tadhg Gaelach

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Dublin 4 will hate me for saying this, but this might be a good time to buy Euros. The ECB has a new boss, Christine Lagarde, who seems to be very much a Draghi clone. Draghi didn't raise interest rates once in his whole term of office. You might think that's bad for the Euro, but perception is everything in the markets. If the Fed isn't rising rates, the market is worried. But, if the ECB isn't lowering rates, the market thinks all is well. If you look at this chart, you'll see that the down trend in Eurozone inflation that started in Autumn 2018 has bottomed out and has now broken the down trend line to the upside. Sadly I can't show it here, but you see an uptrend has begun. Inflation is now 1.3% year on year, where it had been around 1%. That's a lot in marco-economic terms. The upshot of that is that Lagarde is highly unlikely to cut rates in 2020, or boost up quantiative easing from the current rate of 20 billion per month. The market will see that as a positive.

So the question is - what to buy Euro against? The Swiss Franc has gone up a lot this year with all the market worries - its regarded as a safe haven. When that happens, the Swiss Central Bank usually starts subverting the Franc in various ways. So you buying Euro and selling Swiss Francs may be an idea.

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Tadhg Gaelach

Tadhg Gaelach

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Talking about the Swiss Franc, it might also be an idea to sell Francs and buy Australian dollars. The Aussie has really suffered from the trade war, but it hasn't got a bounce from the trade deal like the Yuan has because of the bush fires. But, they won't last much longer and then the Aussie should get its bounce as China starts increasing its orders for raw materials again. Australian employment figures out tonight, which are expected to be good. Despite all, Aussie unemployment is still low. Look at retail sales figures over the last five years - they show a very confident Aussie consumer.

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Tadhg Gaelach

Tadhg Gaelach

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Another reason for liking the Euro (mea culpa D4) is that unemployment in the Eurozone is now at its lowest rate since just before the Financial Crash in 2008 (maybe that's a bad omen :oops:). But, unless the sky falls on us again, these relatively low unemployment figures should help to boost inflation and keep the ECB from cutting rates or extending QE. That will be positive for the Euro.

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Tadhg Gaelach

Tadhg Gaelach

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And a final argument of liking the Euro is that the Eurozone is actually more dependent on China than the USA is, and the trade war had more of an effect on places like Germany than it did on the USA. An easing of trade tensions should see a boost in the Chinese economy and more orders for German and other EU goods and services. On the down side of that is that Trump is now turning his attention to the EU :oops: But I doubt if they're be any US \ EU trade war. And then there's Brexit :eek:
 
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Tadhg Gaelach

Tadhg Gaelach

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If you prefer stocks, maybe Tesla is a good idea. Shares trading at $542 at the moment, but market analysts are predicting it will hit $800 in the near future. Tesla has just broken the $100 billion market value. Incredibly, the stock has doubled in value in the last three months.
 

Pat Bruno

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I don't buy individual stocks.
I don't try to call the market, or 'beat' it.

I'm too stupid for any of that.

Instead, I buy index funds.
When the dividends are paid out, I buy more index funds.

If ever I feel tempted by some hair brained money making fad, I put the cash I otherwise would've wasted towards...index funds.

If the stock market collapses, I'll cash in my put options and buy yet more index funds.

At some stage in the not too distant future, I'll be able to live a very comfortable life off the dividends from... dah dah dah dah... index funds.

And I'll still have plenty left over to invest in more -- take a wild guess -- index funds.


 
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Tadhg Gaelach

Tadhg Gaelach

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I don't buy individual stocks.
I don't try to call the market, or 'beat' it.

I'm too stupid for any of that.

Instead, I buy index funds.
When the dividends are paid out, I buy more index funds.

If ever I feel tempted by some hair brained money making fad, I put the cash I otherwise would've wasted towards...index funds.

If the stock market collapses, I'll cash in my put options and buy yet more index funds.

At some stage in the not too distant future, I'll be able to live a very comfortable life off the dividends from... dah dah dah dah... index funds.

And I'll still have plenty left over to invest in more -- take a wild guess -- index funds.



Well, I'm sure you've done very nicely over the last couple of months. Sounds like a good strategy.
 
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Tadhg Gaelach

Tadhg Gaelach

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As predicted above, Aussie employment numbers came in very good and the Aussie dollar has got a nice boost. Hopefully, it'll build up a bit of momentum now. I bought against the Swiss Franc - thought I'd better put my money where my mouth is.
 

ShumanTheHuman

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I don't buy individual stocks.
I don't try to call the market, or 'beat' it.

I'm too stupid for any of that.

Instead, I buy index funds.
When the dividends are paid out, I buy more index funds.

If ever I feel tempted by some hair brained money making fad, I put the cash I otherwise would've wasted towards...index funds.

If the stock market collapses, I'll cash in my put options and buy yet more index funds.

At some stage in the not too distant future, I'll be able to live a very comfortable life off the dividends from... dah dah dah dah... index funds.

And I'll still have plenty left over to invest in more -- take a wild guess -- index funds.


I've been managing my own self directed PRSA for a year, started last January, now using a very basic/crude dividend/growth sentiment strategy. Its going fine, mostly thanks to getting into MSFT @ $106 a year ago. AT&T are another big holding since the summer, although the growth hasn't been great the dividends are sweet.

I have also started in the last few months dividend investing through DeGiro. Going pretty well picking high yield stocks, min 5% - highest is over 12% VET - Vermillion.

I really enjoy actively getting in and out of stocks which has kept my attention away from Index funds but I know I should diversify into these. Any specific tips?

I have massively messed up with a small cap Pharma Stock in both my PRSA and investment account. Hoping for a low value buyout at this stage. My dreams of buying a chalet in the Italian Alps have as much chance of happening as me tobogganing down my cul de sac this winter.

In relation to my PRSA and despite the tanking Pharma I am up 14% including contributions made in the year and and 9% if they are taken out. Does anyone know how institutional funds calculate performance? I can't find the answer online. I'd like to be able to compare my performance using the same metrics as the institutions

When I had a institutional pension it used to drive me nuts listening to a suit telling me I should be happy with 6% growth when I would have increased the value of the pension by 7% with my contributions.
 
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The Equaliser

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I would not buy sterling or the euro, not until this Brexit business is decided. I would back the dollar against these, at least until the presidential election.

I have been long on AUDNZD since 26/12/19. I woke up this morning to see things are looking more positive, as you referred to the employment figures in Aus.

Funny you should say about Tesla. Some foreign wanker cold called me before Christmas advising to buy Tesla, but I don't often buy shares.
 
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Tadhg Gaelach

Tadhg Gaelach

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I've been managing my own self directed PRSA for a year, started last January, now using a very basic/crude dividend/growth sentiment strategy. Its going fine, mostly thanks to getting into MSFT @ $106 a year ago. AT&T are another big holding since the summer, although the growth hasn't been great the dividends are sweet.

I have also started in the last few months dividend investing through DeGiro. Going pretty well picking high yield stocks, min 5% - highest is over 12% VET - Vermillion.

I really enjoy actively getting in and out of stocks which has kept my attention away from Index funds but I know I should diversify into these. Any specific tips?

I have massively messed up with a small cap Pharma Stock in both my PRSA and investment account. Hoping for a low value buyout at this stage. My dreams of buying a chalet in the Italian Alps have as much chance of happening as me tobogganing down my cul de sac this winter.

In relation to my PRSA and despite the tanking Pharma I am up 14% including contributions made in the year and and 9% if they are taken out. Does anyone know how institutional funds calculate performance? I can't find the answer online. I'd like to be able to compare my performance using the same metrics as the institutions

When I had a institutional pension it used to drive me nuts listening to a suit telling me I should be happy with 6% growth when I would have increased the value of the pension by 7% with my contributions.

I've never got involved with index funds, so I wouldn't be able to give you any advice. Pat Bruno might give us a few tips as to which ones to look at.
 
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