Is Gold about to drop Hundreds of Dollars?

Tadhg Gaelach

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An interesting article here that suggests that gold prices may be about to enter a period of steep decline. As I write, gold is trading at 1506 USD per ounce. A couple of weeks ago it traded at 1556. These are financial crisis prices. And yet, we're certainly not in a financial crisis. What does appear to be happening is that Europe has joined Japan and South Korea in a demographic winter, where lack of new babies means low interest rates and low profits for companies. The USA is likely to join us within a couple of years. But, this is not a financial crisis. It's just a slow - very slow - death of Capitalism. I think the fall in cryptos may be down to the same factors.

In my experience of trading financial markets, I'd say the biggest single influence is boredom - simple boredom. People get used to any situation very quickly and they just get bored with it. Nothing more sophisticated than that. I think traders are now bored with the China Vs USA trade war and they're bored with Brexit. Bad news about these things doesn't make them as fearful as it used to. The article below makes the interesting point that gold and silver miners are not doing well. That would be a sign that the market does not believe gold and silver are staying high in the long term.

Another point that I noticed last week is that during September, Western banks and institutions make record loans to emerging market economies. This shows that Western institutions do not expect any sort of financial crisis in the foreseeable future. Of course, they can be wrong, and they have been in the past, but we have to go on what we see before us.

I'm short gold myself. Targeting 1400 in the medium term. But, gold could be going a lot lower than that.

 

The Equaliser

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I thought it was the start of a reversal 2 days ago when it slipped to $1459 per troy ounce. I think it will still find support as long as the needle with Iran is continuing. With the slide in indices this week it may give it more upward movement. On the other hand, there is a hammer chart pattern on the D1 chart for US30 for today. This may be a sign the indices are about to go back up.
 
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Tadhg Gaelach

Tadhg Gaelach

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I thought it was the start of a reversal 2 days ago when it slipped to $1459 per troy ounce. I think it will still find support as long as the needle with Iran is continuing. With the slide in indices this week it may give it more upward movement. On the other hand, there is a hammer chart pattern on the D1 chart for US30 for today. This may be a sign the indices are about to go back up.

NFP tomorrow will be important, and the Chinese are coming to Washington next week for trade talks.
 
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Tadhg Gaelach

Tadhg Gaelach

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Good point. The last NFP came in under forecast. Tomorrow's expected is 147k. I wonder if this figure is underestimated to keep the sentiment positive for the dollar.

The unemployment figure is totally ficticious anyway. If you've stopped looking for work because you can't get a job, you're not counted as being unemployed :rolleyes:
 

bells of shandon

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Back in 1971 at the end of the Gold Standard and the Brettons Woods Agreement, gold was set at $35. When Nixon pulled out of the Gold Standard the price soared to $800 dollars.
Gold has been manipulated ever since and kept lower to hide the vulnerability of the US$ to devaluation.
Russia and China have been accumulating Gold at a great rate in preparation of leaving the US$ Reserve system.
Western banks have been accumulating physical gold at a steady rate as insurance against the coming Financial Crash. In the meantime they manipulate the price lower to assist in this accumulation.
They use paper Gold and naked shorting for this and the Fed is involved.
Myself I prefer Silver ,whose ratio to Gold is at present historically way out of the moving averages.
 
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jpc

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The unemployment figure is totally ficticious anyway. If you've stopped looking for work because you can't get a job, you're not counted as being unemployed :rolleyes:
American employment figures have been a fiction for at least 30 years.
Real unemployment is approximately 15%. Then the gig economy or underemployed figures maybe another 10%
 
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Tadhg Gaelach

Tadhg Gaelach

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Pretty good NFP. US unemployment at lowest level since 1969. Gold falling back below 1500. We just need the China meeting next week to generate some positive atmosphere and gold is going down.
 

jpc

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Pretty good NFP. US unemployment at lowest level since 1969. Gold falling back below 1500. We just need the China meeting next week to generate some positive atmosphere and gold is going down.
The whole world economic model is sustained by financial engineering, QE and 0% interest rates, share buybacks facilitated by the previously mentioned devices.
Not real economic development.
Gold and silver might be a good hedge.
The world economy is in a very precarious place for quite some time.
 
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