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General Economic Banter

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Deleted member 163

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This thread is for shooting the breeze on general news as this is a small community of posters and readers. This is not to be taken as any sort of financial advice as I am not a licensed finncial advisor. These are my own personal opinions, likely worth very little. 
  If we need to discuss stocks in private then can a private group be set up.
  To get the ball rolling. I would like to ponder the fallout from Paris. It calls into question the viability of the EU even more than prior to this. I expect the falling euro of late to gather speed. At the least it will slow the speed of commerce and at the most, it calls into question the unity of the entire bloc.
 As measured against the terminally I'll dollar, it is 1.07. Against the gold price, which has suffered 4 years of deflation it is 1013 euros an ounce. 
  As regards stocks I have recently began to nibble, by catching a falling knife. One should avoid that and I have been cut, but of course expect a turn at this point. We shall see

Any investors/gamblers reading.
 

ergo2

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Good idea.   I have no ideas at present,  but will get back to it.

Massive proliferation of advisers, newsletters etc since the web took off.

Charting has also become popular.   I recall back in the sixties A.G. Ellinger used to send out charts with talk of moving averages, golden crosses, dead cat bounces, resistence points etc.

Often wondered how much of charting is self-fulfilling prophesy?

E.g. some chartist says that 100€ is the resistance point for a particular stock or currency.

Then when it breaks down thru that point, others sell either by decision based on that movement, or thru' a computerised problem
 

cyberianpan

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Charting is dubious at best

The only two fundamental methods are:
Buffet's
The micro-arbitragers (e.g. HFT)

Taleb's method may be fundamental...and balance sheet and cashflow analysis ought to put one in the zone of "average returns"

Cyp
 
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Deleted member 163

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Charting imho is little different from political spin. I used to watch cnbc a lot and the likes of John Bollinger made great semce but unfortunately it is very easy to see this that and the other formation when you are looking back. Looking forward is a different kettle of fish and any squiggle can be a head and shoulders top until it squiggles the other way and becomes a bottom, till the next squiggle which of course you do not know how far away it is. With everyone having some sort of computer program, I don't see any point in it at all.
  I am not so sure fundamental is much use either, except for recognizing the bigger trends. With regards an individual stock, everyone has all the information available instantly and it is already acted upon. Not like the days when a lad could read a perspective or article ahead of the crowd and by doing the legwork have the advantage over the less eager.
  Recognizing different trends like people moving to internet shopping or taking uber over calling a cab or whatever could be all the analysis you need really.

So maybe investing is as simple as just stopping doing the stupid things and stick to what makes sense. This is harder than it seems.

Take the old saying. "Buy low and sell high".  It should be buy high and sell higher.

The buy low part is where myself and nearly every investor imo makes the most drastic mistake.
That is "averaging down". You have a $1000, burning a hole in your pocket(another fatal weakness) and you buy 100 shares at $10 and you start dreaming of the wine and women. Next thing it is at $8 and then bad news strikes and it drops some day to $5. Now you have lost 50% but you don't want to accept reality. So you come up with another grand and you buy 200 shares of the now bargain stock. You feel much better as you now have 300 shares at an average of $6.66 and you are down only 25%. Unfortunately a lad could do this more than once before the stock goes to zero.

This is only one of many great failings of course but just do not fall into this trap.

I have recently purchased 5 stocks of various quantities. Modest to extremely modest sums so the women are not in the dream, a six pack of beer maybe.

I do not want to name them of course to protect the site. I will call them, 1,2,3,4 and 5. More coming. I will say the prices and amounts. 4 are down and 1 is up decently.

I will private message the stock names to anyone that wants to join the discussion and of course it is not any advice.


I do believe in the old saw which says, "two heads are better than one even if they are sheeps".

I will get back to this later of course
 
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