Gemma O'Doherty bus ads appearing across Dublin!

GodsDog

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What kind of numbers are you predicting for quota in Dublin?
Expect a low poll.
I would be disappointed if God couldn't get over one tenth of the quota.
Surely God could do better than that!! Feckin' atheist voters!! :ROFLMAO:
 

valamhic

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I predict Gemma will take the lion's share of the Nationalist vote. Gilroy runs all the time for everything. Hermann just isn't going to do well as nobody knows him and his campaign is not great. But Gemma at least has a bit of profile + the buses going for her.
The quota is got by estimating the total valid poll. (43% of the electorate) Divide by the total number of canditates and add 1 to the answer.

I seem to remember a candite needs about 150,000 to be in the running. Abortion, and all that,is with her but not many know who she is. This count will have a last seat and I reckon she will have a quarter of the votes of the last elected candidate.


I the last elected candidate may have 136,000 she will have 34,000.
 

valamhic

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It will be some laugh if she beats the Labour candidate's vote.
say she got a third of the anti abortion vote, and genuine anti corruption vote, She could beat Labour. She as a conservative
and they are not too thick on the ground as candidates, but there are surely a few voters about. Is she seen as a bit austere? Being
a young woman will do her no harm with male voters.

She has good personal hygiene too, BO is desperate with some left candidates.
 

jmcc

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say she got a third of the anti abortion vote, and genuine anti corruption vote, She could beat Labour. She as a conservative
and they are not too thick on the ground as candidates, but there are surely a few voters about. Is she seen as a bit austere? Being
a young woman will do her no harm with male voters.
There is still a tribalist nature to voting patterns in that some FF/FG/SF voters will vote with their party because they support that party. The main problem in Irish politics is the floating vote. Those are the voters who do not support any party. That's a highly volatile vote and it decides the outcome of elections. It destroyed FG and Labour in the last GE.

The other aspect is that Labour is concentrating on the Nice But Dim demographic (the teachers who want to be paid for a 52 week year having only worked for 36, the student union politician types, the Irish Times opinionators etc). Unfortunately for Labour, the Social Democrats are also fishing in that ever shrinking pool and it may be more attractive to the younger NBD voters. That effectively limits Labour to the older NBD voters and the Labour supporters and personal votes.

GO'D's problem is that she is not thought of as a serious candidate by voters. This means that she will find it difficult to attract enough voters to get elected without transfers. The mistake you are making in grouping voters as "anti-abortion" and "anti-corruption" is that you are ignoring any other political leanings they may have. Some FF and FG voters may be anti-abortion (Butler etc and the late Peter Matthews) and some SF voters may be anti-corruption. This is why politicians when running for election tend to issue bland and non-threatening statements whereas outside of elections, they are totally in favour of all sorts of things. She is going to have the Dublin media working against her and for their gombeen FF/FG/Lab candidates and it will not be an easy election.
 

TW Tone

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The quota is got by estimating the total valid poll. (43% of the electorate) Divide by the total number of canditates and add 1 to the answer.

I seem to remember a candite needs about 150,000 to be in the running. Abortion, and all that,is with her but not many know who she is. This count will have a last seat and I reckon she will have a quarter of the votes of the last elected candidate.


I the last elected candidate may have 136,000 she will have 34,000.

That's wrong.
Number of candidates is irrelevant, unless the number of candidates equalled the number of available seats or is lower.
V unlikely.

What counts is the number of SEATs available. Add one to that and divide into total valid poll.
Then add a vote.
Hence in a three seater, say valid poll of 200000. Add 1 to 3. Gives you four. Divide that in and you get 50000. Add one vote to that and that's your quota. 50001.
The reasoning is that in this three seater, it would be impossible for any more than three people to get 50001.
Do the math. Multiply 50001 by three and subtract what you get from 200000.
Has to be less than 50001. Hence the fourth guy who got that vote couldn't equal the others.

I have long believed that an understanding of PR is one of the things naturalizing settlers should be required to show.
 

Rick kit

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I saw one the other day (a 15) turning onto the main Malahide Road near Tesco Clare Hall (Darndale) headed towards town.
i seen a few on buses headed towards the hospital in jame s street but then the uproar began and now the only one s i see have clair daly on them
 
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