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Did the SP500 just tell me the Market topped on Friday.

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The Equaliser

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Not surprised really. There's no liquidity in the market for this trade - 1000% overnight swap rate has seen to that. Another good day on gold for me - another 10 dollar drop.
Good on you. Gives the rest of us poor bastards encouragement.
 

Tadhg Gaelach

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DXY just broke 98 on fears of Trump declaring a trade war with the EU. But I think it's a bit overdone. Just got long EURUSD at 1.11250, targeting the 100 Day Simple Moving Average at 1.13350. After that, EURUSD could well continue in it's down channel to at least test the low at 1.11200 or so again.
 
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I started the thread at 1929 on the SP500. It has returned exactly there, is this a classic double top?
 

Tadhg Gaelach

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If there is a trade war with the EU, then stocks are likely to fall even further than they did over the China one. But I really can't see those gutless swine in Brussels doing anything like that.
 

The Equaliser

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Perhaps I am displaying my poor understanding of economics, but how can the NFP figures be better than expected and a 0.2% drop in the unemployment figure not send the EURUSD lower? I am not complaining, as I have long positions on said pair, but usually one would expect a negative impact on the EUR.

As an aside, I took a few bob on the UK long gilt yesterday. The smallest lot size is1.0 as the contract size is 100, unlike forex pairs which are 100,000. It is a CFD, so it has an expiry date.
 
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Perhaps I am displaying my poor understanding of economics, but how can the NFP figures be better than expected and a 0.2% drop in the unemployment figure not send the EURUSD lower? I am not complaining, as I have long positions on said pair, but usually one would expect a negative impact on the EUR.

As an aside, I took a few bob on the UK long gilt yesterday. The smallest lot size is1.0 as the contract size is 100, unlike forex pairs which are 100,000. It is a CFD, so it has an expiry date.
I dont pass any remarks on currencies but gold and silver are having decent bounces after a tough period, this tends to weaken the dollar
 

Tadhg Gaelach

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Perhaps I am displaying my poor understanding of economics, but how can the NFP figures be better than expected and a 0.2% drop in the unemployment figure not send the EURUSD lower? I am not complaining, as I have long positions on said pair, but usually one would expect a negative impact on the EUR.

As an aside, I took a few bob on the UK long gilt yesterday. The smallest lot size is1.0 as the contract size is 100, unlike forex pairs which are 100,000. It is a CFD, so it has an expiry date.

The USD had done very well during April and the EUR had done very poorly. So, the big institutions will have been re balancing their portfolios at the end of the month. That meant selling USD and buying EUR so that they still have the same % of their portfolio in each of these currencies. That's one reason anyway. Likewise with gold - as Dan says. There was also a very big inventory build up in the US economy in April, which could suggest that the consumer is cutting back on buying.
 

The Equaliser

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Good video if you are into shares or commodities and are looking to build a portfolio. Perhaps not wholly relevant if currencies are your game.

I have been trading manually for 24 weeks, opened 76 positions, mostly all currency pairs, with an average holding time of 2 days. Besides, if you sit on a position with a significant negative swap, this will eat into profits.

This week, I hope the dollar denominated pairs get a kick in the nuts.
 
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I started the thread at 1929 on the SP500. It has returned exactly there, is this a classic double top?
Tomorrow will see a big drop and the double top is established. I don't put much mass on tech analysis but this really could be a big event.
 
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