$10000 to invest. Zero or 1 million in 5 years.

Art

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I had a miserable turn today, hopefully temporary. I had intended to short BBY. I did this, or so I intended, but instead hit the wrong thing and actually bought. Then BBY started to fall so I sold a few minutes later. Then I shorted 16 shares of HD at 126.80 and that rose to 127.50 for a loss. My shares were on a great run till word of an English MP getting killed knocked gold for 35 dollars. Could you credit that. As if all this was not bad enough, no sooner had I sold BBY than it rose. So everything possible went wrong.

However my FB short is looking good so far and HD will too fall fairly soon. I was itching to add to my short position
Not sure why you are shorting HD. New house builds up, retail sales up, dividends at 2.2% very good - P/E might be a tiny bit high, but given the growth potential and share holders ROI it seems to me HD deserves its current price. The price might bump around a little but I don't see a strong case for shorting it - seems unnecessarily risky to me?? Also FB still has strong analyst support behind it which guides a lot of buying decisions. Yes the days of stratospheric returns are over but FB remains on a steady upward trajectory. In summary I see massive risks (as is inherent in all shorting of stocks) for at best the potential of pretty small gains.

Be interested in your reasoning in wanting to short these 2.

Edit - Just looked at BBY and am similarly confused by your shorting this stock. In the absence of impending catastrophe the dividend yields alone of 3.67% makes this a very attractive stock at a time when some bonds are paying negative interest!
 
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Dan Óg

Dan Óg

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Not sure why you are shorting HD. New house builds up, retail sales up, dividends at 2.2% very good - P/E might be a tiny bit high, but given the growth potential and share holders ROI it seems to me HD deserves its current price. The price might bump around a little but I don't see a strong case for shorting it - seems unnecessarily risky to me?? Also FB still has strong analyst support behind it which guides a lot of buying decisions. Yes the days of stratospheric returns are over but FB remains on a steady upward trajectory. In summary I see massive risks (as is inherent in all shorting of stocks) for at best the potential of pretty small gains.

Be interested in your reasoning in wanting to short these 2.

Edit - Just looked at BBY and am similarly confused by your shorting this stock. In the absence of impending catastrophe the dividend yields alone of 3.67% makes this a very attractive stock at a time when some bonds are paying negative interest!
HD.
There is a huge boom here in all sorts of construction with large projects predominating. There is serious money being asked and being paid for everything. However, in the outlying towns there is no shortage of For Sale signs at all. This is the same old story seen umpteen times, very low interest rates so payments of an affordable size can service a very large note. The rents being asked and gotten are crazy.

http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_ren...2,-71.168618,42.202359,-71.260886_rect/13_zm/

This apartment is about a mile from me. 13 miles as the crow flies from downtown. $3000 a month. Who the hell can afford this. That is extreme for this area but it clearly signals a top. We are just beginning a pop of the bubble. I am confident that we are entering lean times for HD. This stock has had a run from 21 dollars in 7 years. I don't see it going anyplace but down. I am selling short high.

BBY.

I am not short this yet due to my mistake so I hope it rises. I am itching to short it as the days of people spending big bucks on TV or indeed new phones or whatever the latest technology is are over. BBY is in the same boat as all retail. Big buildings, big costs and fewer customers. Everyone has a tv, phone, etc etc and it is all done. All these things are things that new tech is not going to draw new customers any more. The market is sated and spending money is getting more scarce.

FB.

Simple. A valuation of 325 billion and a pe of 69. I often wonder where it gets any income. I have spent maybe $40 and of course it was a total waste. Again, I obviously expect this to crash.

If I had more money in my account I would short all these like goog, amazon, tesla etc etc

I would also hope that things more or less continue my way and use my increasing margin to get even more mining shares. Everything has worked so far but I have been too eager(greedy/foolhardy)
 

Art

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I sincerely hope it all works for you. I wouldn't agree with your reasoning myself but time will tell. I am a little surprised that you are looking for mining shares when you are expecting a downturn in the economy. In the event of a downturn mining shares always get hit hard as demand for raw materials falls or are you looking specifically at gold and silver mining stocks?
 
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Dan Óg

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http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CDE

I had real cause for concern today. When the markets opened at 6pm yesterday my time, gold and silver got crushed with the changing fortunes of brexit. I was facing a very nasty open. And indeed the open was nasty. However it improved greatly as the day went on and I am up big on most of my longs. My shorts are losing but they are of much lesser weight. These mining shares had very unusually large trading volumes as well Friday. CDE had about 7 times it's average and the others were likewise. I see nothing to convince me that these mining shares are not going to rise another 10 times even from here.
 
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Dan Óg

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USA Dollar -- 06/23-22:55 -- -- 1295.70 +39.40 +3.14%
Australian Dollar -2.96% 06/23-22:50 1.3528 0.7392 1752.82 +102.11 +6.19%
Brazilian Real -0.16% 06/23-22:54 3.3405 0.2994 4328.29 +129.61 +3.09%
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Chinese Yuan -0.52% 06/23-22:54 6.6099 0.1513 8564.45 +299.25 +3.62%
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It is actually worse(better) than this. Swings like this have never been seen. Many will not be able to meet their commitments and we could see real interesting developments. Stay tuned.

I bet to the max, and if this holds I will have a historic day.
 
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Dan Óg

Dan Óg

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when there is a gap opening, there are always those who are caught unable to meet their margin. This can be large when dealing with stocks like i do. However dealing in futures it can be huge. There has never been a gap as big as the currency markets tonight and when the markets open here there will be rich traders yesterday, bankrupt today. That is why central banks are having emergency meetings, because some large whale could be beached.
 
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Yes, silver and then gold. All my positions and additions are listed
The thing about Gold is that a lot of the Gold companies have just thrown people certificates which they are happy with but they have issued more certificates than they have actual Gold to back them up with.

People buying gold than need to buy actual gold they can keep at home rather than just pieces of paper. I dont believe Olli about his Maple Leaf. People that own Maple Leaves generally own at least a couple and have them stored away very carefully.
 

Art

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The thing about Gold is that a lot of the Gold companies have just thrown people certificates which they are happy with but they have issued more certificates than they have actual Gold to back them up with.

People buying gold than need to buy actual gold they can keep at home rather than just pieces of paper. I dont believe Olli about his Maple Leaf. People that own Maple Leaves generally own at least a couple and have them stored away very carefully.
When I last looked at this a few years ago they were trading 100 times the amount of gold physically available. This is a disaster waiting to happen and if the bubble does burst the value of gold people physically hold will rocket.
 
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When I last looked at this a few years ago they were trading 100 times the amount of gold physically available. This is a disaster waiting to happen and if the bubble does burst the value of gold people physically hold will rocket.
Indeed- buying "certificates" and shares in Gold companies is useless in the medium term. Get the real thing and guard it carefully.
 
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Dan Óg

Dan Óg

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I think you may be confused between futures contracts and company shares. The 100/1 issue has been around a long long long time and did not bust the comex yet.

I am buying shares, using maximum margin.

I did nothing today. I am busy and likewise tomorrow. I will ponder things Sunday. My opinion at the moment is that the pound will strengthen against the euro. It is the euro that is finished totally except practically nobody recognizes and is trading that.

Gold and silver is now ready to go to the moon, my spacesuit is snugly fitting
 
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Yes thats my assesment too, that the euro is the one in real trouble. Who looking forward could have confidence that the euro will be around in 10 years say knowing that the degree of eurosceptism is higher in Greece, France and maybe even Holland than it is in the UK?

And you have to have that kind of confidence in a currency if you are going to make it an international reserve currency for example.
 
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