On 26 April 2025, Dublin’s streets once again became a battleground for Ireland’s divided views on immigration. The “National Protest for Ireland,” an anti-immigration rally, drew thousands to the capital, echoing a similar event two years prior—the 2023 “Rally for All,” a pro-immigration march organized by NGOs. Both protests, held in the same area along the River Liffey, reveal a stark contrast in organization, attendance, and political support, while also highlighting the growing tension around immigration in Ireland. But as anti-immigration sentiment appears to rise, the question remains: will these protests force a government response, or are they a futile gesture against an immovable political establishment?
On 26 April 2025, Dublin’s streets once again became a battleground for Ireland’s divided views on immigration. The “National Protest for Ireland,” an anti-immigration rally, drew thousands to the capital, echoing a similar event two years prior—the 2023 “Rally for All,” a pro-immigration march organized by NGOs. Both protests, held in the same area along the River Liffey, reveal a stark contrast in organization, attendance, and political support, while also highlighting the growing tension around immigration in Ireland. But as anti-immigration sentiment appears to rise, the question remains: will these protests force a government response, or are they a futile gesture against an immovable political establishment?
Image from https://t.me/OrlaredChan
The 2023 Rally for All, held on 18 February, was a carefully orchestrated event by Le Chéile, a coalition of NGOs advocating for diversity and inclusion. The rally’s promotional poster, plastered with logos of organizations like SIPTU, the Irish Council for Civil Liberties, and AkiDwA, called for “housing, healthcare, services” and “diversity not division.” It was a well-funded, highly organized affair—NGOs even bussed in supporters from across Ireland to ensure a strong turnout. The official count, as reported by The Irish Times, was 50,000 attendees, a figure that aligns with the dense crowd seen stretching along the Liffey in photos from the day. This event was largely composed of NGO workers, volunteers, and sectors that rely heavily on immigration, such as healthcare (where 40% of doctors are foreign-trained) and social services.
The 2023 Rally for All, with an official count of 50,000 attendees, organized by NGOs with significant resources.
Fast forward to 26 April 2025, and the scene was markedly different. The anti-immigration “National Protest for Ireland” drew a crowd that RTÉ reported as 5,000, but visual comparisons with the 2023 rally suggest a much higher number. Based on the crowd density and area covered—similar to the 2023 event but slightly less packed—a conservative estimate places attendance at 25,000. This figure, while half of the 2023 rally’s turnout, is significant given the protest’s grassroots nature. Unlike the 2023 event, the 2025 protest received no public funds, no major political party support, and relied entirely on self-motivated attendees. There were no buses, no institutional backing—just ordinary citizens frustrated with Ireland’s immigration policies.
The 2025 anti-immigration protest, with an estimated 25,000 attendees, driven by grassroots sentiment.
This comparison suggests that anti-immigration sentiment may be approaching parity with the pro-immigration support seen in 2023, a notable shift in just two years. But how does this stack up against electoral support for anti-immigration views?
In contrast, pro-immigration sentiment, as reflected in votes for progressive parties like Labour, the Greens, and the Social Democrats (many of which supported the 2023 rally), was stronger at around 285,041 votes (13.5% of first-preference votes). This aligns with the larger scale of the 2023 rally, but the gap appears to be narrowing as anti-immigration protests gain traction.
If we extrapolate, even 100,000 people attending an anti-immigration protest—four times the 2025 turnout—would represent just 1.87% of Ireland’s population. While significant, this wouldn’t likely sway the government. Ireland’s history shows that only massive, sustained protests can force policy change. The water charges protests from 2014 to 2016, which saw up to 100,000 people march in Dublin alone (reflective of 500,000+ nationally, or 10% of the population at the time), eventually led to the charges being scrapped. Those protests were a nationwide movement, with 80% public opposition per polls, and sustained pressure over years. In contrast, the 2025 protest, even at an imagined 100,000, lacks the scale and broad support to make the government take notice.
Adding to this, the current government recently signed the EU Migration Pact, a framework that commits Ireland to a coordinated approach to migration across the EU, suggesting that large-scale immigration will remain a fixture of Irish policy for years to come. This pact, which includes provisions for burden-sharing and asylum processing, signals a long-term commitment to immigration, further entrenching the government’s direction. For the government to truly care, the numbers would need to approach the scale of the water charges protests—hundreds of thousands marching nationwide, reflecting a clear majority sentiment. Right now, even if 176,000 people support the anti-immigration cause (as estimated), that’s just 3.3% of the population—a vocal minority, not a mandate for change. By the time anti-immigration sentiment grows to the point of vast street protests, it may be too little, too late. Ireland’s history of emigration (70 million diaspora) and its reliance on immigrant labor mean that pro-immigration policies are deeply entrenched, backed by powerful NGOs and sectors like healthcare. The 2023 Rally for All, with its 50,000 attendees and institutional support, showed the strength of this establishment. The 2025 protest, while a sign of growing anger, is still far from tipping the balance.
On 26 April 2025, Dublin’s streets once again became a battleground for Ireland’s divided views on immigration. The “National Protest for Ireland,” an anti-immigration rally, drew thousands to the capital, echoing a similar event two years prior—the 2023 “Rally for All,” a pro-immigration march organized by NGOs. Both protests, held in the same area along the River Liffey, reveal a stark contrast in organization, attendance, and political support, while also highlighting the growing tension around immigration in Ireland. But as anti-immigration sentiment appears to rise, the question remains: will these protests force a government response, or are they a futile gesture against an immovable political establishment?
A Tale of Two Protests: 2023 vs. 2025
Image from https://t.me/OrlaredChan
The 2023 Rally for All, held on 18 February, was a carefully orchestrated event by Le Chéile, a coalition of NGOs advocating for diversity and inclusion. The rally’s promotional poster, plastered with logos of organizations like SIPTU, the Irish Council for Civil Liberties, and AkiDwA, called for “housing, healthcare, services” and “diversity not division.” It was a well-funded, highly organized affair—NGOs even bussed in supporters from across Ireland to ensure a strong turnout. The official count, as reported by The Irish Times, was 50,000 attendees, a figure that aligns with the dense crowd seen stretching along the Liffey in photos from the day. This event was largely composed of NGO workers, volunteers, and sectors that rely heavily on immigration, such as healthcare (where 40% of doctors are foreign-trained) and social services.
The 2023 Rally for All, with an official count of 50,000 attendees, organized by NGOs with significant resources.
Fast forward to 26 April 2025, and the scene was markedly different. The anti-immigration “National Protest for Ireland” drew a crowd that RTÉ reported as 5,000, but visual comparisons with the 2023 rally suggest a much higher number. Based on the crowd density and area covered—similar to the 2023 event but slightly less packed—a conservative estimate places attendance at 25,000. This figure, while half of the 2023 rally’s turnout, is significant given the protest’s grassroots nature. Unlike the 2023 event, the 2025 protest received no public funds, no major political party support, and relied entirely on self-motivated attendees. There were no buses, no institutional backing—just ordinary citizens frustrated with Ireland’s immigration policies.
The 2025 anti-immigration protest, with an estimated 25,000 attendees, driven by grassroots sentiment.
Scaling the Sentiment: What Do the Numbers Say?
To understand the broader implications, let’s scale these figures to Ireland’s population. In 2023, Ireland’s population was approximately 5,213,503. The 50,000 attendees in Dublin represented 3.39% of the city’s population (1,476,381), equating to a reflective national figure of 176,738 people—or 3.39% of the country—who might support the pro-immigration cause if mobilized similarly nationwide. In 2025, with Ireland’s population at 5,344,656, the 25,000 attendees (1.65% of Dublin’s 1,513,611 residents) scale to 88,187 nationally. However, considering that many couldn’t attend due to travel, work, or other commitments, this figure could easily double to 176,000 if only half of potential supporters showed up—matching the 2023 rally’s reflective scale.This comparison suggests that anti-immigration sentiment may be approaching parity with the pro-immigration support seen in 2023, a notable shift in just two years. But how does this stack up against electoral support for anti-immigration views?
The 2024 Election: A Fragmented Anti-Immigration Vote
The 2024 Irish general election, held on 29 November, provides a benchmark. Far-right parties, despite immigration being a key issue for some voters, secured just 1.5% of first-preference votes—approximately 31,671 out of 2,111,416 total votes cast (with a 59.7% turnout). Including far-right-leaning independents, who may have captured some anti-immigration sentiment, the total rises to around 98,708 votes. This is close to the 2025 protest’s unadjusted reflective figure of 88,187, and far below the adjusted 176,000 when accounting for non-attendees. This suggests that anti-immigration sentiment, while still a minority view, is likely growing since the election, particularly as a grassroots movement unencumbered by the electoral system’s fragmentation.In contrast, pro-immigration sentiment, as reflected in votes for progressive parties like Labour, the Greens, and the Social Democrats (many of which supported the 2023 rally), was stronger at around 285,041 votes (13.5% of first-preference votes). This aligns with the larger scale of the 2023 rally, but the gap appears to be narrowing as anti-immigration protests gain traction.
A Growing Anger, But Is It Enough?
The 2025 protest’s grassroots nature—no public funds, no major party support—indicates a deep, organic frustration among ordinary Irish citizens. Immigration has risen as a concern since 2022, fueled by a housing crisis, cost-of-living pressures, and a surge in asylum seekers (100,000+ Ukrainian refugees since 2022, plus 21,000–22,000 asylum applications projected for 2024). Polls from 2024 showed immigration’s growing salience, with 24% of people citing it as their top issue in February (Ipsos) and 41% prioritizing it in May (Reuters), though this dropped to 6% by the election. Incidents like the 2023 Dublin riots and 2024 Coolock clashes further highlight this tension, and the 2025 protest, with its estimated 25,000 attendees, is a clear sign that anger is mounting.If we extrapolate, even 100,000 people attending an anti-immigration protest—four times the 2025 turnout—would represent just 1.87% of Ireland’s population. While significant, this wouldn’t likely sway the government. Ireland’s history shows that only massive, sustained protests can force policy change. The water charges protests from 2014 to 2016, which saw up to 100,000 people march in Dublin alone (reflective of 500,000+ nationally, or 10% of the population at the time), eventually led to the charges being scrapped. Those protests were a nationwide movement, with 80% public opposition per polls, and sustained pressure over years. In contrast, the 2025 protest, even at an imagined 100,000, lacks the scale and broad support to make the government take notice.
A Government Unmoved: Timing and Numbers Matter
The current Fianna Fáil–Fine Gael coalition, formed after the 2024 election, is in its first year of a five-year term. With 48 and 38 seats respectively, they hold a comfortable majority, and there’s little immediate pressure to change course. Immigration, while a growing concern, ranked below housing (28%) in the 2024 election exit poll, and the government has already taken steps to address public sentiment—such as reducing Ukrainian refugee Mandate funding from €910 million in 2023 to €340 million in 2025. Sinn Féin, which lost votes partly due to its pro-immigration stance, has since shifted to a stricter position, potentially absorbing some anti-immigration voters and reducing the need for protests to influence policy. However, even the main opposition parties, led by Sinn Féin, appear to be pro-immigration overall, meaning that unlike the water charges protests—where there was widespread political opposition to the policy—there is little unified opposition to mass immigration within the Dáil.Adding to this, the current government recently signed the EU Migration Pact, a framework that commits Ireland to a coordinated approach to migration across the EU, suggesting that large-scale immigration will remain a fixture of Irish policy for years to come. This pact, which includes provisions for burden-sharing and asylum processing, signals a long-term commitment to immigration, further entrenching the government’s direction. For the government to truly care, the numbers would need to approach the scale of the water charges protests—hundreds of thousands marching nationwide, reflecting a clear majority sentiment. Right now, even if 176,000 people support the anti-immigration cause (as estimated), that’s just 3.3% of the population—a vocal minority, not a mandate for change. By the time anti-immigration sentiment grows to the point of vast street protests, it may be too little, too late. Ireland’s history of emigration (70 million diaspora) and its reliance on immigrant labor mean that pro-immigration policies are deeply entrenched, backed by powerful NGOs and sectors like healthcare. The 2023 Rally for All, with its 50,000 attendees and institutional support, showed the strength of this establishment. The 2025 protest, while a sign of growing anger, is still far from tipping the balance.
